OCTOBER 30--The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization (Savannah, GA) has stuck to its spring 2002 prediction for the 2002 chip market of $142 billion, up 2.3% over 2001, but reduced its growth estimate for the 2003 chip market from 21.7% to 16.6%. As a result, the 2003 chip market will be $165.9 billion, not the $173 billion previously predicted, according to the WSTS. The figures come from the WSTS 2002 Fall Forecast determined at a four-day meeting held here October 15 to 18.
However, although the WSTS has reduced its expectations for 2003, mostly influenced by lower expectations for discrete semiconductors and microprocessors, in 2004 the market size is expected to jump to $198 billion, a growth of 19.2%. This is higher than the 14.5% growth previously predicted and results in about the same market value as forecasted in spring 2002.
WSTS said the return to growth is being led in 2002 by the Asian region but that all regions are expected to grow in 2003 with memories, digital signal processors and sensors all showing growth rates well above 20%. As in previous forecasts, the WSTS reckons for peak growth in 2004 of 19.2%, followed by 2.6% growth in 2005. This forecast is slightly down from the 3.2% growth previously predicted for 2005, and as a result the total market in 2005 will still not exceed the semiconductor market's peak year of 2000, when sales topped $200 million.