IDC predicts PC chip decline not over yet
APRIL 22--The PC semiconductor revenue decline that began in late 2000 will end in 2002, according to a report issued by International Data Corp. (IDC; Framingham, MA; www.idc.com).
APRIL 22--The PC semiconductor revenue decline that began in late 2000 will end in 2002, according to a report issued by International Data Corp. (IDC; Framingham, MA; www.idc.com). The recovery will begin to show itself in the second half of 2002, and the path will be bumpy. IDC forecasts that revenues in the total worldwide PC semiconductor market will rise from $36.3 billion in 2001 to $37.6 billion in 2002--a rise of about 3.4%.
The desktop PC semiconductor part of the market will rise from $28.1 billion to $29.1 billion, or by approximately 3.9%. Mobile PC semiconductor revenue will rise by approximately 1.6%, from $8.3 billion to $8.4 billion, according to IDC.
The return of notable revenue growth will not happen until 2003, when, IDC predicts, total revenues will grow at healthy pace, driven by a strong PC replacement cycle. In the long run, however, growth will not surge as it did in 1999 and 2000. In fact, a return to the record revenue levels of 2000 is at least another five years off.
In terms of semiconductor components, worldwide desktop and mobile PC microprocessor revenue will set the tone of the year with modest growth of 3.8%, ending at $23.4 billion. PC DRAM revenues, disastrous in 2001, will grow by 15.9% to $5.7 billion, IDC said.
One notable area of growth, says the report, will be in the revenues of core logic chipsets that integrate graphics controllers, growing by almost 36%, to nearly $2.4 billion.