JUNE 18--DisplaySearch (Austin, TX), an FPD market research and consulting firm, reveals that large-area (10 in. and greater) TFT LCD shipments exceeded expectations in Q1-03, rising 7% Q/Q and 25% Y/Y to a record-high 20 million units, surpassing suppliers' aggregate 4% Q/Q growth forecast by 556K units. The faster-than-expected growth was due to LCD monitor module shipments increasing nearly twice as much as forecasted as monitor brands capitalized on lower panel prices. The higher-than-anticipated growth caused the large-area surplus to remain around 5% and triggered price increases. Due to higher-than-expected unit growth, revenues also exceeded expectations, rising 5% Q/Q and 4% Y/Y to $4.2 billion, ahead of our 2% revenue growth forecast. The average large-area panel diagonal increased 1% to 15.34 in.
The outlook is also positive for Q2-03, with shipments expected to rise 13% Q/Q and 29% Y/Y to another record high. Due to strong demand growth and smaller than expected supply growth, the surplus has narrowed further, boosting weighted average large-area prices by 8% from $210 to $226. As a result, Q2-03 should be a record quarter for large-area TFT LCD revenues, up 22% Q/Q and 2% Y/Y to $5.13 billion, with most TFT LCD suppliers returning to profitability. The average diagonal is expected to rise 1% to 15.47 in.
Although the LCD monitor module market is expected to slow in Q3-03 due to the impact of 15- and 17-in. LCD monitor module panel prices increasing for six and five consecutive months, respectively, overall large-area shipments are expected to rise 9% on significant growth in LCD TV modules to another record high. Even though the large-area surplus will widen in Q3-03, it is still expected to remain below 5% contributing to a weighted average increase of 3%, along with the surge in larger-sized TV shipments, which should boost the average diagonal by an additional 1% to 15.68 in. As a result, another record quarter is expected for revenues, up 12% Q/Q and 31% Y/Y to $5.75 billion.
By size for all applications on a unit basis, 15.0-in. shipments dominated with a 47% share. 17 in. shipments overtook 14.x in. shipments for the first time, with a 19% to 16% advantage, and are expected to reach 25% in Q3-03. The share of panels 15 in. and larger increased from 72% in Q4'02 to 76% in Q1'03, and is expected to increase further to 80% Q3'03.
Regionally, Korea-based suppliers accounted for 40% of unit shipments and 42% of revenues and are expected to improve their share to 47% in Q3-03 on both a unit and revenue basis due to well-timed fab investments.
Supplier shipment rankings on an area basis in square meters per month of panel output for all large-area applications indicate that LG.Philips LCD remained #1 in Q-'03 with a 20.3% share, gaining additional share on 13% area growth. It led on an area basis in Q1-03 in notebook PCs and LCD monitors, was #2 in LCD TVs, and #3 in Other. Samsung remained #2, on 9% growth to a 17.2% share. It was #2 on an area basis in notebooks and LCD monitors, #3 in LCD TVs, and #4 in Other. AUO remained #3 on an area basis with 10% growth to a 12.3% share. It was #3 in LCD monitors. Sharp remained #1 in TVs and Other with 48% and 45% shares, respectively.
