APRIL 29--Although the semiconductor industry experienced four consecutive quarters of revenue growth in 2002, it is too soon to deem that the industry has recovered, reports In-Stat/MDR (Scottsdale, AZ; www.instat.com). The market-research firm finds in its report, "Semiconductor Market Forecast," that the year 2002 ended with revenues 1.3% above the 2001 total; however, were it not for a major assist from the DRAM market (which increased revenues by 36.2% due to a rebound in ASP), the year would have ended off by 1.8%.
An upturn is expected, however, in the second half of 2003 that will result in annual worldwide semiconductor revenues growing by 16.7% to $164.2 billion. This increase will be followed by further growth in 2004 and 2005, before the next cyclical downturn occurs in 2006.
"It is necessary to be cautious, as the outlook for the balance of this year is more uncertain than usual," says Steve Cullen, a research director with In-Stat/MDR. "First, there are the usual problems associated with the recovery from a downturn, and the recent downturn was much more severe than most others, particularly in the Information Technology areas. In addition, with current geopolitical uncertainties, other factors that would normally figure prominently in the outlook (the continued strength of the Chinese economy for example) have been reduced to a secondary status."
