MAY 14--Despite economic uncertainty, worldwide PC shipments and revenues are estimated to experience a slight increase in the second quarter of 2003, according to a preliminary forecast by Gartner Inc. (Stamford, CT;www.gartner.com). Worldwide PC shipments are forecast to reach 30.7 million units in the second quarter of 2003, a 6.4% increase from the second quarter of 2002. On a revenue basis, the market is projected to have worldwide revenue of $38.3 billion in the second quarter of 2003, up 2.6% from the same period last year.
Gartner analysts say the strength of the global PC market going forward depends on the timing and pace of the global economic recovery, which is struggling to get under way. "The good news for the global economy is that the war against Saddam concluded more quickly and with fewer damaging economic consequences than many expected," says George Shiffler, principal analyst for Gartner's computing platforms and economics research. "The bad news is that the global economy does not appear to be experiencing the uplift that so many anticipated once the war was concluded, at least not yet.
"In the United States, prospects for a recovery remain mixed and economists are increasingly split over whether 2003 GDP growth will prove better or worse than 2002," Shiffler notes. "The outlook for the general economic recovery would be greatly enhanced were Europe able to engineer some autonomous growth, but the prospects for this remain poor because of weak confidence, the appreciating Euro, and overly tight macroeconomics.
"The SARS outbreak in Asia is already having an appreciable impact on select economies in the region, and there is a rising danger that the outbreak could significantly impact the entire region if intra-regional trade is severely disrupted."
Gartner analysts say PC shipments are projected to reach 136.9 million units in 2003, a 6.6% increase from 2002. PC revenues are on pace to total $170.6 billion in 2003, up 3.3% from 2002 revenues.
